Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-30 4.498749 5.360995 6.317793 7.454533 8.764317 10.222137 11.963349
2025-04-06 3.124968 4.250114 5.641489 7.471028 9.793658 12.622619 16.304940
2025-04-13 2.273174 3.474649 5.106836 7.444603 10.657753 14.863191 20.716686
2025-04-20 1.889488 3.187301 5.093448 8.019478 12.302187 18.228924 26.910147
2025-04-27 1.535285 2.839114 4.896468 8.257844 13.458591 21.012563 32.570703
2025-05-04 1.288561 2.591518 4.784691 8.571118 14.719090 24.026593 38.802891
2025-05-11 1.046328 2.287275 4.512570 8.564011 15.450213 26.287312 44.089209
2025-05-18 0.819718 1.951484 4.114931 8.266985 15.647014 27.704002 48.166004
2025-05-25 0.632254 1.641602 3.698720 7.857330 15.577250 28.650463 51.534771
2025-06-01 0.517616 1.455140 3.479794 7.766442 16.033243 30.475314 56.437578
2025-06-08 0.425127 1.293090 3.276744 7.667946 16.449224 32.246681 61.360417
2025-06-15 0.388079 1.257517 3.335900 8.100250 17.899388 35.929639 69.794491
2025-06-22 0.331777 1.158542 3.241426 8.212278 18.769623 38.696917 76.932063
2025-06-29 0.279043 1.053560 3.113319 8.234560 19.468360 41.219059 83.844562
2025-07-06 0.232895 0.952452 2.973420 8.207368 20.059368 43.584210 90.641361
2025-07-13 0.220955 0.957014 3.106035 8.833254 22.092282 48.865260 103.178918
2025-07-20 0.195927 0.908846 3.087832 9.092611 23.355445 52.730372 113.292440
2025-07-27 0.176737 0.874860 3.102086 9.433145 24.829535 57.116372 124.665004
2025-08-03 0.149950 0.801516 2.986887 9.425452 25.511346 59.943251 133.184413
2025-08-10 0.119875 0.701013 2.765913 9.102664 25.422853 61.167228 138.615992
2025-08-17 0.092995 0.599943 2.516406 8.657257 24.985048 61.609753 142.493755
2025-08-24 0.077297 0.542739 2.397248 8.558402 25.378563 63.855548 150.165896
2025-08-31 0.064086 0.490587 2.282054 8.451257 25.736583 66.043184 157.838874